5月美股整體呈現“沖高—分化—回吐”的三段式走勢。前半月在AI財報推動下大盤加速上漲，SPY一度突破5950點創歴史新高，但隨著利好兌現、市場缺乏新催化，指數在月末回吐漲幅併形成日線高位震蕩區。技術面上MACD頂部鈍化，KDJ死叉回落，形成短線調整結構。 六月是“政策過渡月”，情緒與估值博弈拉鋸： ✅ 若SPY穩守5800–5820併放量突破5950，行情或迎新高啟動，重回趨勢配置 ❌ 若跌破5800，警惕趨勢反轉、開啟新一輪回調通道，防守思維優先 📌 操作建議：3–5成倉位為宜，輕倉滾動、快進快出，等待下旬FOMC會議前確認方嚮 🔒 建議維持3~5成靈活倉位應對波動行情 🔁 右側突破再加倉、回踩支撐可分批低吸
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